THE ECONOMIC PERISCOPE (JULY~AUGUST) 2024
- Credit Rating Agency in India
- Economy Overview
- THE ECONOMIC PERISCOPE (JULY~AUGUST) 2024
Market expectations are at hype with a 73 per cent probability of a 50-bps rate cut in September 2024 and an aggregate 115 bps cut by Christmas (Reuters). US stocks crashed at the end of the week as fresh macro data showing signs of possible recessionary fear (the “Sahm rule”, named according to the former Fed Economist Claudia Sahm, indicates that US is likely to enter a recession). According to July’24 jobs report, the US economy added fewer jobs than expected, while the unemployment rate increased to 4.3 per cent nearly 3-year high. Those additional signs of a slowdown in the labor market are likely to feed recession fears and rate-cut expectations. According to media news, markets have priced in another 74 basis points of cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB) and 47 basis points from the Bank of England (BoE).